When do you think humans will land on mars?

When do you think humanity will finally set their foot on the red planet?

2026 ( Like Elon Musk said ) 1
Before 2030 3
In the 2030s 4
In the 2040s 6
In the 2050s 1
Later 1
Never 3
Help us keep this site organized and clean. Thanks!
[ Report Post ]
Comments ( 8 )
  • donteatstuffoffthesidewalk

    soon as they discover oil there

    Comment Hidden ( show )
  • ThatOneGuyYouNeverWantToMeet

    Land? If they go balls to the walls with the budget & throw all caution out the window, maybe the 2030's.
    Make it inhabitable however? Maybe the 2090's if they go as gung-ho about it as they did landing.

    Comment Hidden ( show )
  • Grunewald

    Set *their* foot... or set foot? That is the question.

    Just out of interest OP (and this is me being a geeky English teacher/linguist), would you be able to say where you are from?

    Comment Hidden ( show )
  • olderdude-xx

    Great question... and the answer is I don't know. Certainly not as Elon Musk predicts.

    The issue is space radiation and solar radiation. In the current designed space capsules any human (or warm blooded mammal) would almost certainly die from excessive radiation from even a 1 way trip. It might take a few years to kill them, and a return trip will certainly finish them off; or it could be over in a few days or less if they get hit with a major solar ejection radiation field.

    Unless they are adequately shielded.

    The problem is that the only way we know how to adequately shield from space and solar radiation is with very large masses. Imagine putting the crew capsule inside a large water tank - with 10ft+ of water on all sides. That would work. We also don't have rockets large enough to send that kind of mass to mars, much less get it back. Extraordinarily expensive. Likely Trillions to build rockets with fuel tanks that big.

    A similar mass of certain plastics.

    You also need to construct most of the rest of the vessel out of materials that will not become radioactive from interaction with space radiation and solar radiation. The astronauts don't need to pick up more radiation because their working areas emit more radiation.

    Anyway, its being studied... and everyone talks about the mythical radiation shielding that won't have mass. Its one of the unobtainium materials at this point (Aviation and Aeronautics are full of theoretical designs based on the properties of unobtainium materials).

    Anyway: Elon Musk was totally correct that he expects people to die on a trip to mars. What he didn't say is that its highly likely that it will be 100% of the crew.

    Who's ready to sign up for that... with the understanding that no insurance company is going to issue or cover any life insurance for you (Experimental exclusion).

    I do believe that they will find a way to reduce the mass by say 50% over water; and they will also byte the bullet and build large enough rockets. Nuclaer propulsion rockets are almost certainly the only way to do this. A special multi-round trip vehicle like in "The Martian" will likely be built - with disposable decent and assent vehicles.

    Unfortunately, one of the few scientific inaccuracies of The Martian was not showing how much radiation shielding would be needed. They assumed that some form of mythical light weight radiation shielding existed.

    Edited to add: Low Earth Orbit is still largely protected by the earths magnetic field. The moon is partially protected; although I understand that the Apollo program came within a few weeks of loosing a crew on a moon trip due to a large solar eruption that sent a flare our way with a hugh amount of radiation.

    Comment Hidden ( show )
  • JellyBeanBandit

    I'd guess the early 2040s realistically.

    Comment Hidden ( show )
  • 1WeirdGuy

    I was watching the other day the apollo video of them on the moon and it made me laugh abit. Idk the videos I saw looked really fake. Im not saying it for sure was fake but based on the nasa videos they very well could be. It looked like a bad 1960s movie with the terrible special effects. Im not so sure we have ever even really been to the moon. I think its gonna be another hundred years ATLEAST before we go to mars.

    Comment Hidden ( show )
      -
    • olderdude-xx

      I would expect most of the younger generation to say that's what it looked like. I remember watching it live on TV. One of my oldest sister's best friends dad, from a block away, worked at NASA on the moon program - and I assure you that it was all very real.

      The video equipment of the late 1960's was very limited.

      They used black and white in the space capsule and on the moon to save space and weight, and used the old black and white TV standard of the 1950's.

      Any detailed clear pictures of movies you see of that era was film cameras. The main photographic camera that they took to the moon used something like a 4"x6" negative with a resolution not yet matched by modern electronics (modern electronics has matched the 35mm film resolution. It was that large film negative camera that took that beautiful picture of the earth rising over the moon in the late 1960's. They had an assortment of lenses for that camera (wide angle to telephoto).

      Comment Hidden ( show )
  • dude_Jones

    Humans are dependent on the microbial ecosystem of planet Earth. Mars doesn't have one. It will take decades to genetically engineer microbes and biological support that can sustain us on Mars. I favor a slower cost efficient approach that gets us there in the early 22nd century.

    Comment Hidden ( show )