Is it normal want to share my winning horse racing system with 2 loyal friends

Sorry it's going to be long and thanks for bearing with it.

First of all I don't gamble; for example, when I have gone to Vegas my friends complained I'd wager a roll of quarters and if I lost it all, or won another roll I'd stop. But I am good at math and statistics, so one day I decided to investigate both Poker and horse races, which, by law are both classified as games of skill not luck. Horse racing won out, as I am bad at lying in poker and everyone can see via my body language what I'm holding, etc.

So then I spent literally years studying horse racing statistics, and came up with some astounding loopholes where the public is just not seeing things the way they really are, or alternately are seeing things at the very last minute and I can see all of this via the money flow into bets on particular horses, etc. These are mainly non-Kentucky Derby type races, where there is a lot of confusion going on. This is all done on-line at two major wagering sites (one is backup if the other site crashes).

For months I have kept a record of such wagers, and it has basically come down to the fact that when I cherry-pick the specific races to wager on (about 15-20% of available races) I can win as many as 95% of the wagers, with a profit of about 35-50% per bet, sometimes more. Of course, being a cautious non-bettor, I have resisted the temptation to just stop working and doing this and nothing else. In fact, I have almost never wagered at all, it's mostly on paper and done live with real-time information (not in the papers after-the-fact, as I am forcing myself to feel a bit pressured and rushed when trying to make a snap decision to wager or veto, just like you would feel if you actually went to a track).

It got to the point I couldn't execute it real-time by myself, so I hired someone to assist me one day a week, (a professional person who has a real job in another field and is also a non-gambler). This assistant is in on a profit-sharing thing and we are actually beginning to wager small amounts (better to bet 20 wagers of $2 than do one of $1,000, because the risk is too high that way); for example, a day this past week we made about $23 on 19 $2 wagers (one loss, I bet to Place and it came in to Show) etc. My assistant has informed me that when it totally takes off they are willing to quit their day job - - they believe in it that much. My girlfriend has also put a token amount of money into the wagering accounts, waiting for the proverbial ship to come in.

So it's is apparent that this will make a lot of money (assuming the laws stay the same - and it's totally legal in most jurisdictions including mine, but not in some States). And when it does I want to cut in two dear friends who have not had such an easy ride in life.

So what do I do?

Share the system, but they sign contracts limiting bet $$ 0
Share the system, wish them well, and no further contact 3
Share enough so they can help wager, but don't reveal the true system 3
Tell them nothing at all, never mentioning this subject 1
I vaguely refer to the subject, no offer of help 3
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Comments ( 12 )
  • drugsrbadmkay

    Oh bullshit you're just trying to sucker people on this website into a pyramid scheme.

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    • Not a ghost of a chance of that; in fact, if I actually told you how it works you would realize that it could destroy handicapping as we know it, so therefore no more profits for me.

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  • Remembers the good olddays at the Meadowlands.May go back someday.

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  • dappled

    You don't have to share your system. You can share tips or you could be generous with your winnings. When you share the system, you have no way of controlling its misuse.

    P.S. Hope this isn't a "directed" Pari-Mutuel scam. It wouldn't work here anyway; IIN's population is too small and the take-up would be nowhere near high enough.

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    • I don't know what a "directed" Parimutuel scam is, and I actually saw my first race at about 8 years old. BTW I have thought about selling this system to individuals via Daily Racing Form, etc., but realized that too many cooks spoil the broth, which is why I am taking your advice and not sharing the system; better I should hire those two friends and not really explain how I'm successful.

      BTW in my system there are no tips, no handicapping, no research; basically it's like a momentum stock trader who sees stocks going up or down and really doesn't care why. It is situational only, I only do the bets when exact circumstances happen at the very last minute. I have no way of knowing which races will actually be bet on ahead of time, except I do know which ones for sure that I would not consider betting on.

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      • dappled

        Sounds interesting. I did something similar with betting exchanges with in-play betting. Because people are so keen to lay an obviously losing bet (a horse that is straggling), they'd often lay at 1000 to 1. If you take that bet for the smallest stake possible (£2) and that horse then improves even slightly so you can lay it at 500 to 1 for £2, it gives you a free 500 to 1 bet for £2. Because you've both backed and laid, you've technically got no stake (they cancel each other out), but the odds don't cancel each other out because they are different for each bet.

        I made about 6-10% (nowhere near as much as you) but estimated I could get it up to 15% trackside. In the end, it was hard to keep up that level of concentration (I didn't used to back and lay the same. I used to square root it to give a return on either win or loss, and may also have had several backs and lays within 30 seconds). It has to be so quick that there isn't time for calculators and you must calculate your position in your head.

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        • Ah yes I envy you Brits, you can lay odds; here in my state the legislature is making us wait an additional year before they will allow us to do that. When that happens I plan to lay every odds-on favorite, which, as you must know, win only about 42% of the time, so I have a better than even chance in a blind-betting system.

          And as far as calculating odds and spreads and odds declines and close ties, I tried doing it via excel spreadsheet, but it got to the point where if I can't decide by eyesight and in my head, I just veto the bet. To win you have to think both quickly and accurately, a discipline that most are sadly lacking.

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          • dappled

            Sounds like there was some similarity in our method. All credit to you for sticking with it. Although I did make a consistent profit, it was hard work.

            Being able to lay bets is a double-edged sword. Where the betting markets are biased to profit bookmakers, when you open up laying markets to punters, the bias dissolves and both backing and laying is without an obvious advantage.

            However, the big advantage I found in being able to lay was in spotting a bookmaker offering a bet which could be laid off at the exchange for guaranteed profit. One problem you face is that while the bookie accepts the bet straight away, you've got to wait for people to take up your laying offer and it happens a bit at a time (during which time people offer bet odds and overcut you). Great fun, though. Until the bots moved in and started sweeping the markets.

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            • Yes, those damned bots! As I see it you were/are using arbitrage (i.e. buying low and selling high simultaneously) and of course if you can't get simultaneous execution at your prices you may just lock in a guaranteed loss (same as the Stock Market). Mine is more like I own the Craps table and make the dealer's advantage by paying out less than the risks, so I'd only lay against what I politely refer to as "a fool who hasn't learned he is one yet". Your way is not only more difficult, but taxes the brain - in fact I could "bot" mine if I wanted to - find the people willing to bet on odds-on favorites by a program my computer friend could write for me if I had such an inclination, which I don't, as I have to be the "hunter" and do it face-to-face - - very anachronistic, I know.

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