When do you think businesses will open back up?

Due to the coronavirus, when do you think businesses will open back up?

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  • Lots of businesses will never open up again.

    What we're currently living through is an economic shock greater than the Great Depression of the 1930s. But that slump was a slow process that developed over a few years; this has hit out of the blue and things have fallen to shit in a couple of weeks.

    The business paradigm that we've been living with has been based on keeping liquid assets as low as possible, relying on long, complex supply chains with just-in-time deliveries, treating workers as disposable and yet relying on those employees to provide a steady, reasonably predictable consumer demand. Although the global economy has, generally speaking, been rolling along reasonably well, the system as a whole was fundamentally fragile.

    Three million Americans registered as unemployed last week, and it's certain even more have registered since then. The US Treasury Secretary now says that unemployment may hit 20% - very close to the maximum level of unemployment during the Great Depression.

    There's simply no way everything is going to miraculously bounce back to what we all considered normal once Trump or any other politician declares that the crisis is over. Even if most of those businesses that fired workers don't actually close permanently, it will take months - if not years - for the whole financial-production-transport-consumption system to shift to whatever the new norm will be.

    And, of course, we really don't have a fucking clue what's actually happening in China. Supposedly, everything's cool there now, but nobody with any sense takes anything the Chinese government says at face value.

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  • I said early May.
    I mean by then, society will realize it cannot function like this.

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  • I said mid-May, mostly because right after Easter seems like total bullshit, and mid-May is the latest I'm hoping for. Deep down I'm completely clueless about when things will improve. (So are Trudeau and Trump, btw, so don't pay them any mind, either.)

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  • The world is going through an interesting change.
    I would'nt venture a guess as to when this ends.
    This virus could mutate.
    Just like the spanish flu.
    Go round the world 3 times.
    Each loop more deadly.
    Great time to buy up some properties and stock.
    Eventually, it will pass.

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  • Once the virus has wiped out all the baby boomers

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  • According to Trump on Easter day it opens back up

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    • On 22 January, Joe Kernen of CNBC asked Trump about the possibility of the virus going pandemic and he replied:

      “It’s going to be just fine. We have it totally under control.”

      Of course, Trump now denies that he was minimising the risks two months ago and he's claiming that he always knew it was serious and would go pandemic.

      As with virtually any topic you could name (including what he himself said a few weeks previously), Trump has not a fucking clue.

      The USA now has more _confirmed_ cases than any other country - including China - has seen, the slope on the graph is still rising steeply and Easter is just over two weeks away. But Trump's capacity to fuck things up is truly monumental, so it's entirely possible he will soon decree that everybody should just pretend that everything is normal.

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      • Trump should have never shut down the economy that was very stupid.

        You have to realize that America's cases has shot up because we just started testing like 3 weeks ago. This virus has likely been in America for months. Infact my dad is convinced he had it in January. He had all the symptoms and tested negative for the flu.

        When you factor in how many people have gotten over it and were not tested (the government is telling you not to go to the hospitsl and get tested unless necessary) it makes the death ratio go down even further. The death ratio in America right now is less than 1% but when you factor in how many werent tested it goes far far lower than that.
        Which makes it far under the flu . Also there is more people in America and China isnt testing as much and lying about their numbers. The whole thing is hysteria. Viruses go around all the time. You dont shut down the economy over something so silly.

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        • It's true that the US administration's fuck-ups resulted it not being possible to test more Americans, so it's not at all clear how many are infected. It's also true that we'll only know just how many people have been infected and get a definite picture of what the true history of the spread of the virus has been once antigen tests are carried out in a widespread and systematic way after the dust has settled.

          But regardless of what your father's gut feelings may be, it's pretty clear that the virus has not been circulating outside of China for all that long. From what I've read, the X-ray pictures of lungs of COVID-19 patients are very distinctive so doctors should have been aware that something unusual circulating, and you've only recently started to see in the USA the sudden spike of patients in respiratory failure like the one that hit Italy.

          From what I've seen going down in Italy and what's now developing in Britain, I'm confident that you're deluding yourself if you insist on believing this is no big deal. It hasn't really hit you yet, but it soon will, and the structure of the healthcare system in the USA means that you can expect to hear some pretty ghastly stories (if you're willing to listen).

          The issue of death rates and testing cuts both ways. In the UK, there have been a couple of high-profile cases of young people dying in recent days where it's come out that they will not be included in the official death count because they were toughing it out at home and so they didn't get tested. Even so, it's pretty damn clear it was COVID that killed them. I understand the same is the case in the States: if someone dies of pneumonia after having some or all of the classic COVID symptoms, they'll only be considered to have official died of the virus if they've had a positive test.

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          • Big respect for being able to conversate in a civil manner on things like this. Most people would be calling each other names by this point haha. I enjoy the discussion.

            Firstly, I dont see how it's been a big fuck up on the US government's part when it comes to testing. This is a new virus which means they had to manufacture new tests which takes time to do so when there 325 million ppl. Also you can only go off the numbers they've given us. Perhaps those numbers are false and were made to look better to avoid panic, but thats another discussion. Assuming that the numbers are correct its a mild virus especially when you consider how many werent tested. More people die from the flu. And I'm not taking this lightly either I have enough food to last me months if necessary. I am taking it serious. But when I look at the data and set my emotions aside I feel that its not as bad as the media is portraying.

            As far as the problem getting worse, maybe but maybe not, I can not predict the future, I always admit uncertainty. I will be prepared. I think the American healthcare system needs some adjusting but I dont think it will be a huge problem here. In America if you go to the hospital they legally have to treat you even if you cant pay. They send you home with a bill, and if you cant afford that the government will help out.

            So again we can only go off the data they gave us, and judging by that, it's not as apocalyptic as they portray. Either way I'll be prepared.

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  • how long is a piece of string?

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  • Some time in 2023

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