Sometimes it seems there are regions of the world where conflict resurfaces again and again, even after several generations have lived and died.
It's difficult to know what will happen next when things are escalating so quickly, but you don't have to look far back in history for a similar example. The Russian invasion of Georgia five years ago and the brief war that followed. The European Union were able to bring about an end to hostilities by acting as mediators.
That may be the case here too but I have my doubts. Ukraine's meek non-militaristic reaction suggest they fear the impending invasion (which I notice just became news about 15 minutes ago in that it has been authorised unanimously by the upper house of the Russian parliament).
I don't see Russia accepting a compromise over Crimea, probably the most "Russian" of the territory they lost. I also see huge issues in Ukraine with the ethnic mix of Russians and Ukrainians. National Socialism is on the rise, with the aim to eradicate the mix and bring racial purity.
Politically, the logical solution would be for Crimea to transition itself back to Russian sovereignty. I believe in the long-term that may happen. But no country that has regained independence so recently can allow itself to be shown impotent. The flashpoint is going to come from that situation, especially if - as I believe - UN support for Ukraine isn't going to be as strong as perhaps it might be.
Russia V Ukraine
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Sometimes it seems there are regions of the world where conflict resurfaces again and again, even after several generations have lived and died.
It's difficult to know what will happen next when things are escalating so quickly, but you don't have to look far back in history for a similar example. The Russian invasion of Georgia five years ago and the brief war that followed. The European Union were able to bring about an end to hostilities by acting as mediators.
That may be the case here too but I have my doubts. Ukraine's meek non-militaristic reaction suggest they fear the impending invasion (which I notice just became news about 15 minutes ago in that it has been authorised unanimously by the upper house of the Russian parliament).
I don't see Russia accepting a compromise over Crimea, probably the most "Russian" of the territory they lost. I also see huge issues in Ukraine with the ethnic mix of Russians and Ukrainians. National Socialism is on the rise, with the aim to eradicate the mix and bring racial purity.
Politically, the logical solution would be for Crimea to transition itself back to Russian sovereignty. I believe in the long-term that may happen. But no country that has regained independence so recently can allow itself to be shown impotent. The flashpoint is going to come from that situation, especially if - as I believe - UN support for Ukraine isn't going to be as strong as perhaps it might be.