People are fearful, and that emotion triggers different responses. Some people don't really understand what's happening and have slipped into a state of apocalyptic panic. Others are obsessively interested in what's going down because understanding a situation allows them to regain some sense of control. Still others have gone into denial and either refuse to even think about what's happening or they spend their time in social media echo chambers with other deniers.
The hoarding isn't logical, since nowhere is in such a dire state that chickens have stopped laying eggs, all the silos full of grain and warehouses full of flour have burned down, the toilet paper factories have been shut and the delivery networks connecting producers with consumers have collapsed. But for some people, having an attic stuffed full with toilet paper is enough to give them an illusory sense of having done something concrete against an invisible threat.
It's clear that the complex networks which provide food and consumable goods are under a lot of stress at the moment. I've seen reports of supermarket managers in the UK saying that what they're seeing is like pre-Christmas shopping levels being sustained for a couple of weeks now. As well as shelves in supermarkets being stripped as soon as they're filled, I'm sure that lots of workers no longer eating at places near their job and people no longer going out to eat is going to cause disruption simply because the supply chains have to adjust to a new normal.
But most people have a finite amount of space to store stuff and a limited amount of money, and it's not like the virus is making everyone eat three times as much as they normally do (or use more TP than they normally do), so we have to be getting close to a point where what people buy returns to something close to normal.
It seems to me that what this whole situation highlights is how many people are totally unprepared for any sort of social or economic disruption because they have been working under the assumption that the magic of free-market capitalism means they'll always be able to buy whatever they need whenever they need it. I know lots of people find it a challenge to put food on their family dining table from day to day, and I'd never criticise them for not having any sort of buffer stored away. But for those of us who are better-off, there's no excuse for not having at least a couple of weeks worth of long shelf-life staples on hand.
It seems to me that one lesson many people could learn from all this is that they should pay more attention to what's in their cupboards, get out of the habit of buying what they need only as they need it and try to always maintain a personal stockpile of enough food and hygiene supplies to get them through two or three weeks. Prepping to the extent that Mormons do with a year's supply of food socked away seems to me excessive (and stock-control is a hassle since you have to ensure that stored food is used and replaced before it goes bad), but it's not difficult to get into the habit of looking out for discount offers in supermarkets on stuff you'd use anyway, buy more than you immediately need of at least a couple of items on each visit to the shops and try to keep a rotating supply of tinned and dried food on hand at all times.
That's all fine, Booj, but just a couple of things. Firstly, the 7% daily growth rate would indicate that roughly half of the UK population will eventually get infected. Plus, the collapse of world stock markets would seem say prices are appropriate for an aggregate infection curve that will not stay flattened long enough for care to all critical patients.
It's 130 days until August, and 1.07^130 doesn't look pretty. Of course, the spread will slow after more of the infected population has recovered, and consequently cannot get reinfected.
We basically have a decision to make right now. Do we buy a 50 kg bag of flour today, or contract an almost certain infection buying it this summer? The answer for a 70 year old is different than it is for a 20 year old. Hopefully, you know a 20 year old who can go to the store for you when the worst has arrived. (I'm hoping for a counter-response here. Your intelligence and deeper awareness of general situations is a positive influence on all of us.)
People avoiding talk about Corona virus because scared?
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People are fearful, and that emotion triggers different responses. Some people don't really understand what's happening and have slipped into a state of apocalyptic panic. Others are obsessively interested in what's going down because understanding a situation allows them to regain some sense of control. Still others have gone into denial and either refuse to even think about what's happening or they spend their time in social media echo chambers with other deniers.
The hoarding isn't logical, since nowhere is in such a dire state that chickens have stopped laying eggs, all the silos full of grain and warehouses full of flour have burned down, the toilet paper factories have been shut and the delivery networks connecting producers with consumers have collapsed. But for some people, having an attic stuffed full with toilet paper is enough to give them an illusory sense of having done something concrete against an invisible threat.
It's clear that the complex networks which provide food and consumable goods are under a lot of stress at the moment. I've seen reports of supermarket managers in the UK saying that what they're seeing is like pre-Christmas shopping levels being sustained for a couple of weeks now. As well as shelves in supermarkets being stripped as soon as they're filled, I'm sure that lots of workers no longer eating at places near their job and people no longer going out to eat is going to cause disruption simply because the supply chains have to adjust to a new normal.
But most people have a finite amount of space to store stuff and a limited amount of money, and it's not like the virus is making everyone eat three times as much as they normally do (or use more TP than they normally do), so we have to be getting close to a point where what people buy returns to something close to normal.
It seems to me that what this whole situation highlights is how many people are totally unprepared for any sort of social or economic disruption because they have been working under the assumption that the magic of free-market capitalism means they'll always be able to buy whatever they need whenever they need it. I know lots of people find it a challenge to put food on their family dining table from day to day, and I'd never criticise them for not having any sort of buffer stored away. But for those of us who are better-off, there's no excuse for not having at least a couple of weeks worth of long shelf-life staples on hand.
It seems to me that one lesson many people could learn from all this is that they should pay more attention to what's in their cupboards, get out of the habit of buying what they need only as they need it and try to always maintain a personal stockpile of enough food and hygiene supplies to get them through two or three weeks. Prepping to the extent that Mormons do with a year's supply of food socked away seems to me excessive (and stock-control is a hassle since you have to ensure that stored food is used and replaced before it goes bad), but it's not difficult to get into the habit of looking out for discount offers in supermarkets on stuff you'd use anyway, buy more than you immediately need of at least a couple of items on each visit to the shops and try to keep a rotating supply of tinned and dried food on hand at all times.
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Bazinga
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That's all fine, Booj, but just a couple of things. Firstly, the 7% daily growth rate would indicate that roughly half of the UK population will eventually get infected. Plus, the collapse of world stock markets would seem say prices are appropriate for an aggregate infection curve that will not stay flattened long enough for care to all critical patients.
It's 130 days until August, and 1.07^130 doesn't look pretty. Of course, the spread will slow after more of the infected population has recovered, and consequently cannot get reinfected.
We basically have a decision to make right now. Do we buy a 50 kg bag of flour today, or contract an almost certain infection buying it this summer? The answer for a 70 year old is different than it is for a 20 year old. Hopefully, you know a 20 year old who can go to the store for you when the worst has arrived. (I'm hoping for a counter-response here. Your intelligence and deeper awareness of general situations is a positive influence on all of us.)