Well we know Trump will be the republican nominee. The question is who will the democratic nominee be. If Biden runs, it will be him, if not, probably Sanders. Hillary likely wont make it to the starting gate what with all her problems. But either way, Trump would beat Sanders or Biden easily so unless the Dems can pull a rabbit out of a hat i dont see it happening
No I don't think we know any of that. The primaries are an impossible thing to call. People like to look at national polls, but they are completely irrelevant In the primaries. That is because the cacuses/primaries are not a single, national election, they take place over months and the candidates change over that time.
If you go back to the early 70's which is pretty much how far back the modern primarily line up goes, whoever wins 2 out of the first 3 contests has always one the nomination, making the other 47 states almost irrelevant. The only exception to that is Bill Clinton in 92 because the first 3 were won by 3 different people, but he did win one of the three.
That is not just coincidence, there is a very specific reason for it. The big money starts to hedge their bets and they start to thrown it all behind the candidates that win early. This results in most of the other candidates dropping out of the race because their campaign coffers run dry.
This makes this year's Republican primary far harder to predict than the Democratic one. Because there are so many candidates in the polls that you can't know where those votes will go once everyone starts to drop out, so you can't even trust the polling for the early states. I would expect after the Iowa Caucuses, at least half the field will drop out, and even more after New Hampshire. So by the time you get to South Carolina, you have maybe 3 to 5 candidates in the race. So how can we take seriously a poll with 15 candidates? 25% - 30% suppourt Trump in most polls. But what really matters is who will the 70% - 75% of people who don't support Trump swing their suppourt to when their candidate drops out. That is why McCain won the nomination in 2008. He was not expected to win the nomination, but after he pulled out NH enough candidates dropped out that the Evangelical vote in SC got split between two people, and he won SC which the polls shoes him doing nothing in. The front runner that year Rudy Giuliani dropped out after FL winning no primaries, and with 46 states still waiting for their turn to vote.
I know that you are a big Trump supporter, and you certainly have cause to be excited about the current position of your candidate. But for the same rrasons early front runners often don't win, it is far from a lock. It could go down exactly as you discribed, but there are a lot of other possibilities too.
Good analysis. of course its still early, but as we all know, these things take money like you said, and people have to start well in advance, so anybody who's not in by now probably aint gonna be it. And also like you said the early winners do start to get the momentum.
I think what people will be surprised about is that Trump will actually attract a lot of Democratic and Independent voters. Its bizarre, i cannot even totally explain it myself, but America loves this guy. I read every day about more and more celebrities, blacks, sports players, they all support Trump. Even Kanye West, and Dennis Rodman like him. I cant say i support all of these people or fully understand why they like him , but im glad that they support Trump.
And its not anything new and temporary either. People have loved Trump for many, many years as i am sure you already know. He's in rap songs and everything
Just like people felt that Obama was a long time in the making for this country, so too i think Trump will prove to be.
I don't know but did you really use Dennis Rodman and Kanye West to back up your argument?
Seriously, one guy wears a wedding dress and probably thinks Kim Jong Un would make a great US President. As for Kanye, most people wish his 15 minutes of fame are up already.
The really important question is "Who is Carrot Top backing?".
I mentioned them for precisely that reason. It doesnt even make sense. But theres lots of people, black white gay straight rich poor dumb smart etc who like Trump.
When I said the candidates change as the primaries progress, I wasn't talking about new candidates entering the race, I was talking about candidates already in the race dropping out early, rendering pools that include them pretty irrelevant. And you can classify it as momentum, but it is something more real the earlier winners get money, or more importantly, the losers stop getting it.
I have little doubt that Trump will draw Democrats and independents, but not so much in the primary. You can only vote in one parties primary, so most Democrats especially early while it is still competitive will votenin their own. Also in the first two, the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire primary, you have to join the Republican Party to vote in that contest. So while many independents will join a party temporarily just to vote, many independents sit it out. And even if they do vote, they still can only pick one party primary to vote for.
In the primary you really need to rely heavily on the party base. All that being said, I would still rather be in Trump's position rather than most others.
IIN that Democrats havent succeeded two Democratic terms since 1836 ?
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Well we know Trump will be the republican nominee. The question is who will the democratic nominee be. If Biden runs, it will be him, if not, probably Sanders. Hillary likely wont make it to the starting gate what with all her problems. But either way, Trump would beat Sanders or Biden easily so unless the Dems can pull a rabbit out of a hat i dont see it happening
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billygoatgruff
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No I don't think we know any of that. The primaries are an impossible thing to call. People like to look at national polls, but they are completely irrelevant In the primaries. That is because the cacuses/primaries are not a single, national election, they take place over months and the candidates change over that time.
If you go back to the early 70's which is pretty much how far back the modern primarily line up goes, whoever wins 2 out of the first 3 contests has always one the nomination, making the other 47 states almost irrelevant. The only exception to that is Bill Clinton in 92 because the first 3 were won by 3 different people, but he did win one of the three.
That is not just coincidence, there is a very specific reason for it. The big money starts to hedge their bets and they start to thrown it all behind the candidates that win early. This results in most of the other candidates dropping out of the race because their campaign coffers run dry.
This makes this year's Republican primary far harder to predict than the Democratic one. Because there are so many candidates in the polls that you can't know where those votes will go once everyone starts to drop out, so you can't even trust the polling for the early states. I would expect after the Iowa Caucuses, at least half the field will drop out, and even more after New Hampshire. So by the time you get to South Carolina, you have maybe 3 to 5 candidates in the race. So how can we take seriously a poll with 15 candidates? 25% - 30% suppourt Trump in most polls. But what really matters is who will the 70% - 75% of people who don't support Trump swing their suppourt to when their candidate drops out. That is why McCain won the nomination in 2008. He was not expected to win the nomination, but after he pulled out NH enough candidates dropped out that the Evangelical vote in SC got split between two people, and he won SC which the polls shoes him doing nothing in. The front runner that year Rudy Giuliani dropped out after FL winning no primaries, and with 46 states still waiting for their turn to vote.
I know that you are a big Trump supporter, and you certainly have cause to be excited about the current position of your candidate. But for the same rrasons early front runners often don't win, it is far from a lock. It could go down exactly as you discribed, but there are a lot of other possibilities too.
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Darktown
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Good analysis. of course its still early, but as we all know, these things take money like you said, and people have to start well in advance, so anybody who's not in by now probably aint gonna be it. And also like you said the early winners do start to get the momentum.
I think what people will be surprised about is that Trump will actually attract a lot of Democratic and Independent voters. Its bizarre, i cannot even totally explain it myself, but America loves this guy. I read every day about more and more celebrities, blacks, sports players, they all support Trump. Even Kanye West, and Dennis Rodman like him. I cant say i support all of these people or fully understand why they like him , but im glad that they support Trump.
And its not anything new and temporary either. People have loved Trump for many, many years as i am sure you already know. He's in rap songs and everything
Just like people felt that Obama was a long time in the making for this country, so too i think Trump will prove to be.
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billygoatgruff
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I'm just curious, how old are you?
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Darktown
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How old do you think i am?
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VirgilManly
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I don't know but did you really use Dennis Rodman and Kanye West to back up your argument?
Seriously, one guy wears a wedding dress and probably thinks Kim Jong Un would make a great US President. As for Kanye, most people wish his 15 minutes of fame are up already.
The really important question is "Who is Carrot Top backing?".
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Darktown
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I mentioned them for precisely that reason. It doesnt even make sense. But theres lots of people, black white gay straight rich poor dumb smart etc who like Trump.
When I said the candidates change as the primaries progress, I wasn't talking about new candidates entering the race, I was talking about candidates already in the race dropping out early, rendering pools that include them pretty irrelevant. And you can classify it as momentum, but it is something more real the earlier winners get money, or more importantly, the losers stop getting it.
I have little doubt that Trump will draw Democrats and independents, but not so much in the primary. You can only vote in one parties primary, so most Democrats especially early while it is still competitive will votenin their own. Also in the first two, the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire primary, you have to join the Republican Party to vote in that contest. So while many independents will join a party temporarily just to vote, many independents sit it out. And even if they do vote, they still can only pick one party primary to vote for.
In the primary you really need to rely heavily on the party base. All that being said, I would still rather be in Trump's position rather than most others.