Here's how you would do the math. I'll use hypothetical numbers so that I don't *alarm* anyone.
Let's say highly_unlikely = 1 in 100000 for the current infection count in Africa (1350). Let's say the victim count in Africa gets to 100,000 sometime in January of 2015.
So as you can see, the chances went up by a factor of 74. Now, you only have to find valid numbers to plug into the expression. You won't have to imagine anymore. IIN will become a more precise forum for the discussion of global public health.
IIN that the African Ebola epidemic will go global.
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Here's how you would do the math. I'll use hypothetical numbers so that I don't *alarm* anyone.
Let's say highly_unlikely = 1 in 100000 for the current infection count in Africa (1350). Let's say the victim count in Africa gets to 100,000 sometime in January of 2015.
Then,
Much_more_likely = 1 - (1 - 0.00001)^(100000/1350) = 74 chances in 100000.
So as you can see, the chances went up by a factor of 74. Now, you only have to find valid numbers to plug into the expression. You won't have to imagine anymore. IIN will become a more precise forum for the discussion of global public health.