IIN that the African Ebola epidemic will go global.

Here's how you would do the math. I'll use hypothetical numbers so that I don't *alarm* anyone.

Let's say highly_unlikely = 1 in 100000 for the current infection count in Africa (1350). Let's say the victim count in Africa gets to 100,000 sometime in January of 2015.

Then,

Much_more_likely = 1 - (1 - 0.00001)^(100000/1350) = 74 chances in 100000.

So as you can see, the chances went up by a factor of 74. Now, you only have to find valid numbers to plug into the expression. You won't have to imagine anymore. IIN will become a more precise forum for the discussion of global public health.

Ladies, ladies. We are maintaining certain minimum academic standards for this poll. Thegypsysailor was already sent back to English class for using poor argumentation. Although both of you write well, math skills are a bit of a problem here.

Ms. Douche will not be permitted to to make any further contributions until she learns the precedence of the algebraic operators (^,*,/,+,-) as well as the concept behind binomial distributions. BTW, imaginary numbers (sqrt(-1)) are something that Electrical Engineers use for quadrature in signal processing.

Best of luck in your studies, Ms. Douche.