Very scholarly. An African dude in remission with minimal symptoms may start fucking bitches and smashing pussy. Two percent (or so) of males are like that. (20 dudes in remission out of a 1000 remission cases is enough to keep the epidemic going in Africa.)
No one said anything about patient zero. I'll leave that grim scenario to your wishful thinking.
There are many persuasive arguments to the contrary, but I think if we eventually reach 100,000 cases in Africa, it will go global. Here's my rationale. "The average time between contracting the infection and the onset of symptoms is 13 days, but can be as long as 25 days."[ref 5] Patient zero might well be a gay guy that has sex in Africa the night before his departure to the gay brothels of Haiti. He spends two weeks of sex tourism in Haiti, develops symptoms and dies there. Meanwhile new cases at the brothel multiply and a few months later, an affluent New York poof brings the disease to the US in the same manner.
I hope I am wrong.
5. Eichner M, Dowell SF, Firese N (2011). "Incubation Period of Ebola Hemorrhagic Virus Subtype Zaire OH AND BRETT". Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives 2 (1): 3–7. doi:10.1016/j.phrp.2011.04.001. PMID 24159443.
Just no. This brothel scenario is not going to happen. Ebola is not contagious or even present in the semen before it becomes symptomatic. It is impossible for someone to transmit the disease during incubation.
Ebola is not even classed as a sexually transmitted disease. It is pretty much always transmitted during medical treatment or to those in close proximity to a symptomatic patient due to exposure to bodily fluids.
While it is possible for someone who has contracted the virus and is not yet symptomatic to travel overseas, the likelihood of the virus spreading is low, given proper medical protocols...however, it's highly unlikely that it will spread overseas to begin with.
Here's how you would do the math. I'll use hypothetical numbers so that I don't *alarm* anyone.
Let's say highly_unlikely = 1 in 100000 for the current infection count in Africa (1350). Let's say the victim count in Africa gets to 100,000 sometime in January of 2015.
So as you can see, the chances went up by a factor of 74. Now, you only have to find valid numbers to plug into the expression. You won't have to imagine anymore. IIN will become a more precise forum for the discussion of global public health.
Ladies, ladies. We are maintaining certain minimum academic standards for this poll. Thegypsysailor was already sent back to English class for using poor argumentation. Although both of you write well, math skills are a bit of a problem here.
Ms. Douche will not be permitted to to make any further contributions until she learns the precedence of the algebraic operators (^,*,/,+,-) as well as the concept behind binomial distributions. BTW, imaginary numbers (sqrt(-1)) are something that Electrical Engineers use for quadrature in signal processing.
IIN that the African Ebola epidemic will go global.
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Very scholarly. An African dude in remission with minimal symptoms may start fucking bitches and smashing pussy. Two percent (or so) of males are like that. (20 dudes in remission out of a 1000 remission cases is enough to keep the epidemic going in Africa.)
No one said anything about patient zero. I'll leave that grim scenario to your wishful thinking.
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CountessDouche
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Yeah- enough to keep I going in Africa...the question was: do you think Ebola will go global?
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libby.larsen
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There are many persuasive arguments to the contrary, but I think if we eventually reach 100,000 cases in Africa, it will go global. Here's my rationale. "The average time between contracting the infection and the onset of symptoms is 13 days, but can be as long as 25 days."[ref 5] Patient zero might well be a gay guy that has sex in Africa the night before his departure to the gay brothels of Haiti. He spends two weeks of sex tourism in Haiti, develops symptoms and dies there. Meanwhile new cases at the brothel multiply and a few months later, an affluent New York poof brings the disease to the US in the same manner.
I hope I am wrong.
5. Eichner M, Dowell SF, Firese N (2011). "Incubation Period of Ebola Hemorrhagic Virus Subtype Zaire OH AND BRETT". Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives 2 (1): 3–7. doi:10.1016/j.phrp.2011.04.001. PMID 24159443.
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CountessDouche
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Just no. This brothel scenario is not going to happen. Ebola is not contagious or even present in the semen before it becomes symptomatic. It is impossible for someone to transmit the disease during incubation.
Ebola is not even classed as a sexually transmitted disease. It is pretty much always transmitted during medical treatment or to those in close proximity to a symptomatic patient due to exposure to bodily fluids.
While it is possible for someone who has contracted the virus and is not yet symptomatic to travel overseas, the likelihood of the virus spreading is low, given proper medical protocols...however, it's highly unlikely that it will spread overseas to begin with.
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libby.larsen
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I'm saying do the math. Highly_unlikely X 100,000 cases = much_more_likely.
No reason to be alarmed. We aren't even close to 100,000 cases yet. Just calm down.
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I am calm. I also don't like imaginary math.
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libby.larsen
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Here's how you would do the math. I'll use hypothetical numbers so that I don't *alarm* anyone.
Let's say highly_unlikely = 1 in 100000 for the current infection count in Africa (1350). Let's say the victim count in Africa gets to 100,000 sometime in January of 2015.
Then,
Much_more_likely = 1 - (1 - 0.00001)^(100000/1350) = 74 chances in 100000.
So as you can see, the chances went up by a factor of 74. Now, you only have to find valid numbers to plug into the expression. You won't have to imagine anymore. IIN will become a more precise forum for the discussion of global public health.
Ladies, ladies. We are maintaining certain minimum academic standards for this poll. Thegypsysailor was already sent back to English class for using poor argumentation. Although both of you write well, math skills are a bit of a problem here.
Ms. Douche will not be permitted to to make any further contributions until she learns the precedence of the algebraic operators (^,*,/,+,-) as well as the concept behind binomial distributions. BTW, imaginary numbers (sqrt(-1)) are something that Electrical Engineers use for quadrature in signal processing.
Best of luck in your studies, Ms. Douche.