Yes, I understand that. Casinos would be out of business if nobody ever won.
The longer one plays, the worse their overall odds are.
I watched many co-workers go to casinos and when I asked the next day it seemed like they ALL won. I think they forgot about all the money they dropped trying to win.
My casino experiences involve spending 2 bucks on the slots (I never win) and then drinking for free the rest of the night.
It's not true that the longer you stay, the worse your odds are. Your odds are always the same, although you are right in that they are mostly stacked against you.
What is true is that the variance decreases the longer that you stay. A long stay will allow you a more accurate prediction of how much you lose based on the odds, but of course nothing is ever a certainty.
The most important rule of probability is that previous results do not impact future ones. If you win the jackpot right out of the gate on the first pull, your next pull has just as much chance of winning the jackpot a second time as the first (assuming the game is not rigged). It's true that it is extremely improbable to win the jackpot twice in a row, but winning on the first try only means that you are that much closer to achieving that reality, not that the second pull must have lower odds to "even things out".
"The most important rule of probability is that previous results do not impact future ones"
This is true except for traditional blackjack with a fixed shoe of cards. I'm sure we've all heard of card counting, this gives the player a few percent advantage over the house.
One must gamble very large amounts of money to make this advantage lucrative and like you say, for a short amount of time played the variance is too large. One must continue playing to make the advantage work out.
By the time this does work out, the player will probably be thrown out the door.
Are you a gambler?
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It's true that with millions of people coming through their doors the casino will always reap a healthy profit. The games are designed to do that.
But any single lucky person can come out a winner as well. Just because "the house always wins" doesn't mean that everyone else is always the loser.
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NotStrangeBird
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Yes, I understand that. Casinos would be out of business if nobody ever won.
The longer one plays, the worse their overall odds are.
I watched many co-workers go to casinos and when I asked the next day it seemed like they ALL won. I think they forgot about all the money they dropped trying to win.
My casino experiences involve spending 2 bucks on the slots (I never win) and then drinking for free the rest of the night.
Guaranteed winner there.
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Sog
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It's not true that the longer you stay, the worse your odds are. Your odds are always the same, although you are right in that they are mostly stacked against you.
What is true is that the variance decreases the longer that you stay. A long stay will allow you a more accurate prediction of how much you lose based on the odds, but of course nothing is ever a certainty.
The most important rule of probability is that previous results do not impact future ones. If you win the jackpot right out of the gate on the first pull, your next pull has just as much chance of winning the jackpot a second time as the first (assuming the game is not rigged). It's true that it is extremely improbable to win the jackpot twice in a row, but winning on the first try only means that you are that much closer to achieving that reality, not that the second pull must have lower odds to "even things out".
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NotStrangeBird
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NotStrangeBird
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Hey, one other thought on this...
"The most important rule of probability is that previous results do not impact future ones"
This is true except for traditional blackjack with a fixed shoe of cards. I'm sure we've all heard of card counting, this gives the player a few percent advantage over the house.
One must gamble very large amounts of money to make this advantage lucrative and like you say, for a short amount of time played the variance is too large. One must continue playing to make the advantage work out.
By the time this does work out, the player will probably be thrown out the door.
Yes, you are correct and I am wrong. The odds are fixed and yet if you win a jackpot on your first pull, you'd better run.
Over a long enough period of time, the odds will catch up and the player will lose the house percentage, 2-25% based on the game palyed.